(May Book-Blog) Where the Big Predators Roam: Market Forces as Alien Gods, inspired by Giovanni Arrighi's The Long 20th Century
Giovanni Arrighi's The Long 20th Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of Our Times is a book in the tradition of World-Systems Theory and economics (of the broadly Marxian lineage), chronicling how cycles of capitalist development have shaped economic and political structures over the six centuries prior to its 1994 original release. I didn't love it as a book, but hoo boy has it given me an idea.
Post should be about 40 mins if you read it all, though a lot of the mechanics are probably skimmable unless you're using them in play.
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| In a first for the book-blogs, this isn't the edition I read (the reprinted 2010 version with a Currier and Ives printing of the Brooklyn Bridge) but the abstract Paul Klee art of the original cover fits the rather cosmic topic of this post better |
Arrighi argues at considerable and sometimes exhausting length - the book is quite dry - that there have been four great cycles in the growth of capital and the capitalist world-system. In each, a powerful nation and its attendant capitalist class (the Genoese, the Dutch, the English and the American, in that order) has gone through a similar process:
- Find a way to 'internalize' new costs (using state power to control them and minimize risks) to expand the market in ways that weren't previously possible, leading to a phase of growth through either entry into new markets or development of a home market
- Having become hegemonic and inspired a new world economic order, slam into good old capitalist contradictions, leading to a 'signal' (decline-indicating) economic crisis, after which
- It is realized that any further investment in growth of trade or production will ne essitate internecine competition and destabilize the good thing the investors still have going, so 'financialization' sees money flow out of productive work and into finance, where it can keep earning without needing to take anything from one's fellows and all is well in the world until
- A 'terminal' crisis of finance ends the dominance of the old hegemon and resets the cycle to 1 with whoever can compete their way into a position to succeed them.
There are distinctions between the cycles - they get shorter, for one thing, with the Genoese 'long century' lasting more than two whilst Arrighi by 2009 expected that the American one might survive to the 2040s or so, with its Signal Crisis and financialization (and maybe Terminal Crisis, he thought - clearly not q. yet) already past. By way of reason for this, he suggests that capitalist contradictions, overcome in previous cycles, remain with every time a grand escalation takes place and place a higher barrier before the next hegemon. For another, the first phase alternates between external and internal development, whilst each cycle internalizes more factors of production within its sphere of control than previous ones. And the pattern has both a clear beginning and a potential end - Arrighi suggests that the end of the American Long Twentieth Century might see it stabilize as Forever Hegemon or lead to an end to global hegemons with the power of state and market behind them and plunge us all back into full interstate anarchy. Seems kinda unrealistic NGL (/s).
I won't be using the book as a theoretical bible or anything. It's an interesting pattern; it's also a very malleable one with four data-points, working on a scale of macro-economics so macro that it starts to feel difficult to falsify. Its comparative efforts between modernity and the renaissance and early modern inevitably rely on a lot of approximations and guesswork with regard to i.e. GDP. Unlabelled abstract graphs are not omnipresent but are present. It's self-admittedly Eurocentric - fine in the mid-late imperial and neo-imperial periods, very limited when talking about Genoa. His participation in a bit of light rise-of-Japan scaremongering, walked back in the 2008 afterword where he instead starts thinking of his late research interest of China as the next potential hegemon, is telling: Arrighi makes his case well enough (to a sympathetic ear - I generally find World-Systems Theory compelling and useful), but it doesn't feel prescient or ironclad, as he himself regularly acknowledges to his credit.
Anyway, the bit of the book that inspired this post was not so much the facts as presented by Arrighi - very broad-brush, hard to pull much plot out of - as those facts taken in light of this quote he presents from Annales historian Fernand Braudel:
Above [material life, 'the stratum of the non-economy, the soil into which capitalism thrusts its roots but can never really penetrate'] comes the favoured terrain of the market economy, with its many horizontal communications between the different markets: here a degree of automatic coordination usually links supply, demand and prices. Then alongside, or rather above this layer, comes the zone of the anti-market, where the great predators roam and the law of the jungle operates. This - today as in the past, before and after the industrial revolution - is the real home of capitalism.
The Latourian in me is horrified by this sense of a leap in scale up to some 'higher plane' of economics, out of the realm of real material ties; the panpsychist and OOO-appreciator in me are nodding and smiling from the corner but not saying anything, because; the cosmic horror fan in me has some Observations.
Observation 1: It's not uncommon these days to make explicitly Lovecraftian parallels for the market economy. Ian Wright does this in a theoretical sense, but more poetically it's occurred to video essayists, ebook cover designers & not a few people I casually talk politics with. It's probably the hyperobjectiness of capitalism, right? It's huge, untouchable, can appear or disappear from a place via dimensions inaccessible to the rest of us. It's uncaring in such a way as to usually appear deeply malicious.
Observation 2: A popular way of staging PC confrontations with eldritch gods in D&D is to segment their influence into stages; Sandy Petersen's 5e Cthulhu book did this, and so did Elder Evils for 3.5 over a longer timespan (Petersen's mythos deities are designed to be multi-stage combat encounters; the Elder Evils' influence begins to be felt and escalates to quite horrifying proportions long before you fight them.)[1]
Observation 3: Spirit Island, a collaborative strategy game about nature spirits defending an island people from exploitation by early modern imperial-capitalist powers, has rules for the presence of invaders getting worse and worse over time (with certain distinctive features according to whether you're being colonized by, i.e., England or Spain or etc.) which function very similarly to those escalating-eldritch-threat rules.
Observation 4: It's recently become popular in i.e. the Without Number games to give factions 'character sheets' with particular abilities and actions listed out that they take like one very powerful, very slow character
All this begins to come together to form a picture: one of Arrighi's systemic cycles of accumulation presented as an eldritch force with influence over the whole world, slowly escalating in transformative power as it fundamentally uproots what was and remakes it into something new and twisted. The PCs might fight the horror of changing times (Perhaps encouraging an alternative cycle to develop in its place, or trying to stop the clock altogether) or they might embrace them and be transformed.
Though such a concept would work well as a background feature in games like Mage: the Ascension where ideas shaping and possessing reality in a very literal sense is embedded, it's not really something where a system for it can be deeply system-neutral. It's also much more 'real' and impactful in games where specific resources and costs matter. As such, this system is primarily designed for close D&Dalikes, though it should work with some tweaks for any broadly 'trad' system that precisely tracks costs of things, or as inspiration for other stuff.
Signs of Change
One of these stages should typically last 15-50 years, maybe a little more or less. As such, it's likely that your campaign centres around one of them. However, you could absolutely hack together an accelerated version if the players are in one place, because they're pretty much all a zero sum game in terms of core-semiperiphery-periphery relations - at every stage, some part of the world('s capitalist class and those they bribe) is 'winning' compared to its 'usual' relations. Or, in a game lasting a few centuries, run all of them back-to-back!
Note A: that these are designed to be a little more apocalyptic than real-world equivalents, because they're designed to make the capital-hyperobject the overarching threat of your game. This doesn't necessarily mean the world has always been trapped in such accumulative cycles; maybe earlier ones have been more benign and 'plausible', or this is the first, or the PCs have previously been in an area that overwhelmingly benefitted and now they... aren't.
Note B: that Arrighi actually gives three stages, but repeatedly draws on the 'sign of Autumn' symbolism so I've broken it out into four 'seasons' by making the initial tendrils and upper limits of exploitation their own stages.
Note B: that Arrighi actually gives three stages, but repeatedly draws on the 'sign of Autumn' symbolism so I've broken it out into four 'seasons' by making the initial tendrils and upper limits of exploitation their own stages.
Structure
Each of these has the following:
Telos. This represents the direction in which the economy is being expanded and therefore the thing it wants you to do. Often refer to the 'core' or 'imperial core' - the bit of the world economy to which value is flowing in net from the colonized/exploited 'periphery' and the slightly more privileged 'semi-periphery', in broad terms. Also often refer to the 'hegemon' - the one nation which more than any other exemplifies the new economic pattern and leads its development. Note that, contra the implications of the name, the Telos never 'ends'. Attaining its height, the cycle leads to a catastrophe which shatters the capitalist order or moves into its next stage with time; either of these might seem pretty apocalyptic, but there's no final cataclysmic end state (unless one coincidentally happens along the way as a byproduct...)
People who try to make money against the flow of the new pattern or prevent others following it may be affected by...
Maledictions. The reactions the entity will take, via its agents or market forces, against anybody acting in opposition to its Telos. A Malediction is not a plot in itself - dealing with it might take anywhere from a scene to a couple of sessions, or it might be a long-standing debuff or vulnerability. Generally each should be used against PCs no more than once per stage, and maybe a couple more times against significant NPCs, depending on the extent of the offences against the Telos which they have committed. They generally assume the PCs own a business or some other assets; if not, Capital will struggle to reach them.
Transformations. The way in which the stage of the cycle is changing the world. This might include the introduction of individual plot hooks (which, unlike Maledictions, are untargeted; players may or may not choose to engage with them) and of more general changes to the structure of the setting. Important to note that this does not have to be and indeed is unlikely to be the extent of change, because it has causal effects and logical consequences. It itself, however, does not require any (even if it does in fact have some), being the flailings of the Azathothic being that is the economy. This apparent acausality is the most likely way for players to realize something is wrong.
People who try to make money against the flow of the new pattern or prevent others following it may be affected by...
Maledictions. The reactions the entity will take, via its agents or market forces, against anybody acting in opposition to its Telos. A Malediction is not a plot in itself - dealing with it might take anywhere from a scene to a couple of sessions, or it might be a long-standing debuff or vulnerability. Generally each should be used against PCs no more than once per stage, and maybe a couple more times against significant NPCs, depending on the extent of the offences against the Telos which they have committed. They generally assume the PCs own a business or some other assets; if not, Capital will struggle to reach them.
Transformations. The way in which the stage of the cycle is changing the world. This might include the introduction of individual plot hooks (which, unlike Maledictions, are untargeted; players may or may not choose to engage with them) and of more general changes to the structure of the setting. Important to note that this does not have to be and indeed is unlikely to be the extent of change, because it has causal effects and logical consequences. It itself, however, does not require any (even if it does in fact have some), being the flailings of the Azathothic being that is the economy. This apparent acausality is the most likely way for players to realize something is wrong.
Each also has four Stages: FAINT, MODERATE, STRONG and OVERWHELMING (stolen from 3.5's Elder Evils). Each Stage lists the conditions for Breaking the Cycle at this stage (hard), additional capabilities gained over earlier Stages, and those under which it undergoes Intensification to the next.
Agents
Sometimes these rules refer to 'Agents' or 'Agents of Capital'. These are people through which the hyperobject can unequivocally act - not just those who might further its schemes incidentally to other goals or vacillate between supporting and resisting the new pattern (though neither are they usually self-aware cultists of market forces[2]). The qualifications are as follows:
- Must have no stronger moral or ethical motivation than profit or a goal which can be directly achieved via profit (stronger self-preservation instincts or interpersonal relationships are fine). This is easily determined if using motivation hierarchies!
- Must be either of a class that directly profits from capitalism - the bourgeoisie, some national aristocracies in certain periods - or loyal employee of somebody who is
- Unless motivated by profit above all else, even survival, must be of average or below-average willpower, however your system determines that. Roughly at or below the 60th percentile of the population in this ranking
- For D&Dish six-statters: ≤11 in 3d6-down-the-line, ≤12 or 13 in 4d6kl, whether it's Wisdom or Charisma is going to depend on your system. OR: Wisdom+Charisma must be ≤22 in 3d6-down-the-line, ≤25 in 4d6kl.
- In Old World of Darkness, a Willpower stat of 4 or lower
- In Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay, a Willpower stat of 37 or less (assuming about 5 Advances might be a decent populational average). This makes it more likely amongst humans than anybody else, very plausible since they're the primary engine of nascent capitalism (as opposed to Elvish merchant trading) in the Old World
Engaging the Egregore
Capital/the anti-Market/the Cycle is alive. It's a bit stupid (or at least thinks on a scale that struggles to comprehend our concerns as much as we do those of our individual cells, and with less introspection than we have about our bodily function). Pretty primal, much like the titular 'big predators,' but you're probably playing a game where it's possible to communicate with plenty of stupid nonhuman beings (and perhaps one that doesn't rate humans all that highly either).
Any spell/ability that lets you communicate with a distributed entity - like a god, or the element of fire, or the abstract concept of love - will or might allow access to Capital. This will allow you to understand its drives and the scale on which it sees the world, which may or may not be helpful. It sees the world as a series of flows of value from sources into various repositories; the actual material structure is largely intangible to it, nebulously apparent only for commodities of great embedded value like gold or currency. It views companies and states much like you probably do the components of your body - some limbs, some organs, some parts of the mind, all in good, poor or middling states of health, subordinate but not always compliant. It needs growth like you need food. It views individual market transactions like organelles, people like cells. It generally has a few much smaller market cycles and maybe one big proto-hegemonic rival to consider as fellow-beings at a time, and when you start communicating it will marketify you in its perception, treating you (even if subconsciously) as an endlessly hungry value-grabber and rival.
If you try to use an effect that lets you control it... maybe you can. It's not going to be happy (it hates control) but the effects will be pretty spectacular. Not easy to achieve, but what's the sense of having powers that let you do that sort of thing if you can't use them? Assume it saves at peak human ability (so +11 in 5e), re-rolling failures. If you do some sort of psychic or spiritual damage to it, it is transferred to the closest Agents to your location. (Not really a transfer - they're part of it)
Even if this is a world where gods have a physical form you can meet and beat up, it doesn't have a physical form. Not a single one, anyway.
Even if this is a world where gods have a physical form you can meet and beat up, it doesn't have a physical form. Not a single one, anyway.
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| Art by Michael Avon Oeming, from Douglas Rushkoff (2016) Aleister & Adolf |
Market Development
The Sign of Spring; flowing along trade-routes to find new outlets and intakes; out of the storm, a state emerges to exemplify the new direction and shape the cycle
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| Cristoforo Grassi, View of Genoa and its Harbour |
FAINT
Telos.
- Locate new sources of value not presently tapped by the world-economy
- Invest in non-, closed or precapitalist markets
- Use the power of the Hegemon to protect the Hegemonic capitalist class
- Internalize a new factor of production - using Hegemonic power to make some aspect of it safer and more predictable
Maledictions.
None yet.
Transformations.
- (1/month) an expedition sets out for an unexplored region of the world OR the hegemonic state (to be) steps in to reduce the risks of an innovative enterprise
- (1/year) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing either modestly valuable trade goods or tales of immense value waiting to be tapped.
- Disrupt enough of the rising Hegemon's expeditions to render them unprofitable, without allowing any other Core nation to move to fill its place
- Destroy or cripple the rising Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place
- Reduce confidence of state and capital in each other by engineering failures and betrayals, breaking the bond and causing whichever can find another state or capitalist class to join with first the new hegemon
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:
- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon incorporates a resource-rich nation into its own peripheral territory
- An innovation transforms one of the Hegemon's core industries
MODERATE
Maledictions.
- An agent mocks your outdated, anti-enterprise ways in an important social context, costing you substantial goodwill or opportunity
- The investment you can generate in any enterprise declines 50% in favour of more exciting and lucrative foreign expeditions
- An uncanny event occurs around an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital - something that could just be bad luck/vibes, but feels off in a very unfriendly way and does you some mild harm.
Transformations.
- (1/month) an expedition sets out for an unexplored region of the world OR the hegemonic state (to be) steps in to reduce the risks of an innovative enterprise
- (1/season) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing either modestly valuable trade goods or tales of immense value waiting to be tapped.
- (1/year) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing goods of immense value OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the Hegemonic state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 25%
- (1/year) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly and the value of goods only available in the region increases 10%
Breaking the Cycle.
- Cut all high-value trade routes to the rising Hegemon
- Destroy or cripple the rising Hegemon's state or capitalist class, returning the states to a level field of interstate anarchy (each class will now defend the other)
- Reduce confidence of state and capital in each other by engineering failures and betrayals, breaking the bond and causing whichever can find another state or capitalist class to join with first the new hegemon - starting from Faint again
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:
- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon incorporates a resource-rich nation into its own peripheral territory
- An innovation transforms one of the Hegemon's core industries
- A trade route that was previously suicidal becomes banal
STRONG
Maledictions.
- An agent mocks your outdated, anti-enterprise ways in an important social context, costing you substantial goodwill or opportunity
- The investment you can generate in any enterprise declines 50% in favour of more exciting and lucrative foreign expeditions
- A business you're running is undercut by cheaper or higher-quality goods provided by a rival and agent who's invested in foreign trade. Monthly turnover declines 10% in the first month, then 5% more each subsequent month to a minimum of 50% original
- An implausible, preternatural feat of violence or discovery is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, doing substantial harm to you. It's beyond normal human capacities, but not qualitatively so.
Transformations.
- (Once) the Hegemonic state begins a transformation of class relations. Mercantile/capitalist class and executive/aristocratic positions equalize relative to each other; a middle class expansion and enrichment begins; a slave class may be created depending on the nature of the shift.
- (1/week) an expedition sets out for an unexplored region of the world OR the hegemonic state (to be) steps in to reduce the risks of an innovative enterprise
- (1/month) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing either modestly valuable trade goods or tales of immense value waiting to be tapped.
- (1/season) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing goods of immense value OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the Hegemonic state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 50%
- (1/season) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly
- (1/year) the Hegemonic state starts and wins a signficant war to defend one of its sources of wealth, breaking the back of an opponent
- (1/year) a region or nation along a major trade route or near a major internal source of value is radically transformed - either trying futilely to compete with the Hegemon if Core, altering to facilitate trade if semi-periphery, or stripped of some value or power if periphery.
- Cut all trade routes to the rising Hegemon (just cutting the high-value routes now leads trade to find another way)
- Destroy or cripple the rising Hegemon's state and capitalist classes, returning the states to a level field of interstate anarchy (each class will now defend the other)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:
- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon incorporates a resource-rich nation into its own peripheral territory
- An innovation transforms one of the Hegemon's core industries
- A trade route that was previously suicidal becomes banal
OVERWHELMING
Maledictions.
- An agent mocks your outdated, anti-enterprise ways in an important social context, costing you substantial goodwill or opportunity
- The investment you can generate in any enterprise declines 75% in favour of more exciting and lucrative foreign expeditions
- A business you're running is undercut by cheaper or higher-quality goods provided by a rival and agent who's invested in foreign trade. Monthly turnover declines 10% in the first month, then 5% more each subsequent month, with no minimum
- A new law of/military intervention by the Hegemonic state directly prevents you from accessing a critical market or resource.
- A downright supernatural feat of violence or discovery is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, with pretty much any effect the Cycle desires.
Transformations.
- (Once) the Hegemonic state has a stranglehold on the world market. Essentially any person in a position of power is an Agent unless stated otherwise. Real wages rise 25% in Core nations and fall (if they exist) 50% in the Periphery.
- (Constant) an expedition sets out for an unexplored region of the world OR the hegemonic state (to be) steps in to reduce the risks of an innovative enterprise
- (1/week) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing either modestly valuable trade goods or tales of immense value waiting to be tapped.
- (1/month) an expedition returns from an unexplored region bearing goods of immense value OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the Hegemonic state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 75%
- (1/month) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly
- (1/season) the Hegemonic state starts and wins a signficant war to defend one of its sources of wealth, breaking the back of an opponent
- (1/season) a region or nation along a major trade route or near a major internal source of value is radically transformed - either trying futilely to compete with the Hegemon if Core, altering to facilitate trade if semi-periphery, or stripped of some value or power if periphery.
- (1/year) an uprising, palace coup etc. as either A) a previously-hegemonic group tries to reassert itself and is defeated or B) a rising social power moves to a position of greater power. In no way does this affect profits, remarkably.
- Cut all trade routes to the rising Hegemon (just cutting the high-value routes now leads trade to find another way)
- Destroy or cripple the rising Hegemon's state and capitalist classes, returning the states to a level field of interstate anarchy (each class will now defend the other)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Exploitation & The Signal Crisis
The Sign of Summer; reigning over all the world, state and capital move as one; a burning passion licks at the hearts of a thousand imitators as further reinvestment in expansion becomes dangerously destabilizing
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| Appleton's Journal of Popular Literature, Science and Art |
FAINT
Telos.
- Maximize the safety and efficiency of every channel of wealth from Periphery to Core
- Push growth until Agents tear at each others' throats in their haste to expand
- Maintain capitalist loyalty to Core nation/s
- Cause Core nation/s to imitate the market-expanding methods of the Hegemon
Maledictions.
- A business you're running is undercut by cheaper or higher-quality goods provided by a rival and agent (domestic or foreign) who's willing to be as unethical as necessary to cut margins. Monthly turnover declines 10% in the first month, then 5% more each subsequent month to a minimum of 50% original
Transformations.
- (1/month) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the Hegemonic state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 50%
- (1/year) a major enterprise deals harshly with a competitor or internal malefactor, backed by state power
Breaking the Cycle.
- Persuade 50% of the Hegemon's main competitors to unite against it, leading to a return to a level field of interstate anarchy
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:
- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon's control over a productive region is substantially strengthened
- A semi-peripheral nation becomes core
MODERATE
Maledications.
- A business you're running is undercut by cheaper or higher-quality goods provided by a rival and agent (domestic or foreign) who's willing to be as unethical as necessary to cut margins. Monthly turnover declines 10% in the first month, then 5% more each subsequent month with no minimum
- A new law of/military intervention by the Hegemonic state directly prevents you from accessing a critical market or resource.
- A shady businessperson offers to buy an asset (ideally shares or a company, secondarily land or property) from you for 1d6*10+70% of its value. If you refuse, they send a squad of legbreakers over. If you agree, they make it substantially more profitable but less pleasant.
- An uncanny event occurs around an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital - something that could just be bad luck/vibes, but feels off in a very unfriendly way and does you some mild harm.
Transformations.
- (1/month) a major enterprise deals harshly with a competitor or internal malefactor, backed by state power
- (1/month) legal dispute, lobbying contest, or other non-violent conflict between two Core businesses or states
- (1/month) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the ANY Core state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 50%
- (1/year) violent contestation over external resources by two Core businesses or states; flip a coin for victory - or if Hegemon is one participant, may re-flip
Breaking the Cycle.
- Persuade 66% of the Hegemon's competitors to unite against it, leading to a return to a level field of interstate anarchy
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place
- Persuade the Hegemon's capitalist class to switch their investment to a foreign rival, switching to the first step of Financialization
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Maledications.
- A business you're running is undercut by cheaper or higher-quality goods provided by a rival and agent (domestic or foreign) who's willing to be as unethical as necessary to cut margins. Monthly turnover declines 10% in the first month, then 5% more each subsequent month with no minimum
- A new law of/military intervention by the Hegemonic state directly prevents you from accessing a critical market or resource.
- A shady businessperson offers to buy an asset (ideally shares or a company, secondarily land or property) from you for 1d6*10+70% of its value. If you refuse, they send a squad of legbreakers over. If you agree, they make it substantially more profitable but less pleasant.
- An uncanny event occurs around an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital - something that could just be bad luck/vibes, but feels off in a very unfriendly way and does you some mild harm.
Transformations.
- (1/month) a major enterprise deals harshly with a competitor or internal malefactor, backed by state power
- (1/month) legal dispute, lobbying contest, or other non-violent conflict between two Core businesses or states
- (1/month) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the ANY Core state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 50%
- (1/year) violent contestation over external resources by two Core businesses or states; flip a coin for victory - or if Hegemon is one participant, may re-flip
Breaking the Cycle.
- Persuade 66% of the Hegemon's competitors to unite against it, leading to a return to a level field of interstate anarchy
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place
- Persuade the Hegemon's capitalist class to switch their investment to a foreign rival, switching to the first step of Financialization
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon's control over a productive region is substantially strengthened
- A semi-peripheral nation becomes core;
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:
- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon's control over a productive region is substantially strengthened
- A semi-peripheral nation becomes core;
STRONG
Maledictions.
- A new technology or labour practice renders a business or service you provide functionally obsolete. Your profits decline by 25% each month.
- A rival and agent decides to end your competition by whatever means necessary, and spends 10% of their total wealth to have you killed or stripped of power by the most expedient means they can theoretically get away with
- A new law of/military intervention by the Hegemonic state directly prevents you from accessing a critical market or resource.
- An implausible, preternatural feat of control or creation is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, doing substantial harm to you. It's beyond normal human capacities, but not qualitatively so.
Transformations.
- (Immediate) The Hegemonic state seems at its peak of power. Palaces, factories and armies are larger. The same is true to a lesser extent in other Core states. This is not false glamour and show, it's fairly utilitarian unless ostentation is the primary social point. Action against the state-capital alliance is difficult even to contemplate. The fragility is masked.
- (1/week) a major enterprise deals harshly with a competitor or internal malefactor, backed by state power
- (1/week) legal dispute, lobbying contest, or other non-violent conflict between two Core businesses or states
- (1/season) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the ANY Core state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 50% (or 25% in the Hegemonic state)
- (1/season) violent contestation over external resources by two Core businesses or states; flip a coin for victory
- (1/season) a region or nation along a major trade route or near a major internal source of value is radically transformed - if Core, in competition with the Hegemon; if semi-periphery, in a rebellious attempt to seize as much power and wealth from the trade route as feasible in order to become Core; if peripheral or low-value internal to a Core nation, stripped back to nearly nothing by extractive forces
- (1/year) a price shock as increased competition over a good actually damages the supply chain, leading the value of all related goods to be set to 100+25*1d6% of pre-shock value each season for the next year
Breaking the Cycle.
- Persuade 75% of the Hegemon's competitors to unite against it, leading to a return to a level field of interstate anarchy
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place (there are a LOT of them now, and the whole social structure is on their side)
- Persuade the Hegemon's capitalist class to switch their investment to a foreign rival, switching to the first step of Financialization
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Transformations.
- (Immediate) The Hegemonic state seems at its peak of power. Palaces, factories and armies are larger. The same is true to a lesser extent in other Core states. This is not false glamour and show, it's fairly utilitarian unless ostentation is the primary social point. Action against the state-capital alliance is difficult even to contemplate. The fragility is masked.
- (1/week) a major enterprise deals harshly with a competitor or internal malefactor, backed by state power
- (1/week) legal dispute, lobbying contest, or other non-violent conflict between two Core businesses or states
- (1/season) state-capital collaboration makes a trade route one step less dangerous: suicidal>treacherous>risky>safe>banal. Trade increases correspondingly OR a great advance in industrial efficiency is made in the ANY Core state, reducing the cost of one good (and the pay of its makers) by 50% (or 25% in the Hegemonic state)
- (1/season) violent contestation over external resources by two Core businesses or states; flip a coin for victory
- (1/season) a region or nation along a major trade route or near a major internal source of value is radically transformed - if Core, in competition with the Hegemon; if semi-periphery, in a rebellious attempt to seize as much power and wealth from the trade route as feasible in order to become Core; if peripheral or low-value internal to a Core nation, stripped back to nearly nothing by extractive forces
- (1/year) a price shock as increased competition over a good actually damages the supply chain, leading the value of all related goods to be set to 100+25*1d6% of pre-shock value each season for the next year
Breaking the Cycle.
- Persuade 75% of the Hegemon's competitors to unite against it, leading to a return to a level field of interstate anarchy
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place (there are a LOT of them now, and the whole social structure is on their side)
- Persuade the Hegemon's capitalist class to switch their investment to a foreign rival, switching to the first step of Financialization
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon's control over a productive region is substantially strengthened
- A semi-peripheral nation becomes core;
- Another Core nation defeats the Hegemon in battle
- A major industry within the Hegemon fails
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:
- 10 years pass;
- The Hegemon's control over a productive region is substantially strengthened
- A semi-peripheral nation becomes core;
- Another Core nation defeats the Hegemon in battle
- A major industry within the Hegemon fails
OVERWHELMING
Maledictions.
- A rival and agent decides to end your competition by whatever means necessary, and spends 10% of their total wealth to have you killed or stripped of power by the most expedient means they can theoretically get away with
- A new law of/military intervention by the Hegemonic state directly prevents you from accessing a critical market or resource. If you defeat the blockade and regain access to the resource, unforeseen consequences of your actions cause the trade route to collapse.
- You're accused of sedition and tried or simply attacked
- A downright supernatural feat of control or creation is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, with pretty much any effect the Cycle desires.
Transformations.
- (Constant) Squabbling in the halls of power - if you haven't yet, divide up the ruling class (nationally and internationally) into factions of narrow common interest. These can no longer co-operate, but go at each other with words and then blades. In the streets, anger, conspiracy and rumours of conspiracy. Are the government incompetent??
- (1/week) a frantic, screeching show of power/wealth/patriotism by a Core state or faction within one OR a significant figure loses access to or severely degrades one source of their wealth/power/support in conflict with their rivals
- (1/month) violent contestation over external resources by two Core businesses or states; flip a coin for victory
- (1/month) a region or nation along a major trade route or near a major internal source of value is radically transformed - if Core, in competition with the Hegemon; if semi-periphery, in a rebellious attempt to seize as much power and wealth from the trade route as feasible in order to become Core; if peripheral or low-value internal to a Core nation, stripped back to nearly nothing by extractive forces
- (1/season) a price shock as increased competition over a good actually damages the supply chain, leading the value of all related goods to be set to 100+25*1d6% of pre-shock value each season for the next 1d6 years.
- (1/year) a devastating new interstate, inter-corporate or civil/class war begins OR a previously-existing war escalates. Wars are brutal and ultimately pointless, depleting the resources of both sides with very little gain. The Mediaeval Stalemate Simulator may help, and at any rate gives about the right length of d10 years each. Regions touched by the war are ruined.
Breaking the Cycle.
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place (there are a LOT of them now, and the whole social structure is on their side)
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (easier now)
- Overthrow capitalism (potential for this is comparatively high rn) or render its systems literally untenable
Transformations.
- (Constant) Squabbling in the halls of power - if you haven't yet, divide up the ruling class (nationally and internationally) into factions of narrow common interest. These can no longer co-operate, but go at each other with words and then blades. In the streets, anger, conspiracy and rumours of conspiracy. Are the government incompetent??
- (1/week) a frantic, screeching show of power/wealth/patriotism by a Core state or faction within one OR a significant figure loses access to or severely degrades one source of their wealth/power/support in conflict with their rivals
- (1/month) violent contestation over external resources by two Core businesses or states; flip a coin for victory
- (1/month) a region or nation along a major trade route or near a major internal source of value is radically transformed - if Core, in competition with the Hegemon; if semi-periphery, in a rebellious attempt to seize as much power and wealth from the trade route as feasible in order to become Core; if peripheral or low-value internal to a Core nation, stripped back to nearly nothing by extractive forces
- (1/season) a price shock as increased competition over a good actually damages the supply chain, leading the value of all related goods to be set to 100+25*1d6% of pre-shock value each season for the next 1d6 years.
- (1/year) a devastating new interstate, inter-corporate or civil/class war begins OR a previously-existing war escalates. Wars are brutal and ultimately pointless, depleting the resources of both sides with very little gain. The Mediaeval Stalemate Simulator may help, and at any rate gives about the right length of d10 years each. Regions touched by the war are ruined.
Breaking the Cycle.
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's state or capitalist class, causing another competitor to take its place (there are a LOT of them now, and the whole social structure is on their side)
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (easier now)
- Overthrow capitalism (potential for this is comparatively high rn) or render its systems literally untenable
Financialization
The Sign of Autumn; seeking surety; earthing the expansive energies into the immaterial bedrock; further growth will lead to decay, but much fruit remains to be plucked; better to spend frivolously than expand dangerously
 |
| Job Adriaenszoon Berckheyde, The Stock Exchange in Amsterdam |
FAINT
Telos.
- Shift value from businesses into financial instruments, and from the Hegemonic state to wherever it'll make most money
- Expend profit on luxuries rather than reinvesting it, creating a belle epoque
- Develop new and advanced financial instruments
- The investment you can generate in any industrial enterprise declines 50% in favour of more exciting and lucrative financial speculation
Transformations.
- (Constant) a sense of malaise, decline, the loss of former power hangs over the people. Not every business is going under, but very few are expanding.
- (1/season) A formerly profitable Core industrial or mercantile venture folds or drastically downsizes after an attempt at expansion led to calamity
- (1/year) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 90% multiply the value of your investment by 1d4+1x over a year, 10% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends or whatever
Breaking the Cycle.
- Destroy or cripple the Hegemon's capitalist class
- Persuade the Hegemon's state to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:
- 10 years pass;
- A formerly major industry within the Hegemon has entirely migrated overseas;
- A semi-peripheral power becomes Core
- A great work of art or scholarship is produced
- A Core nation becomes substantially reliant on its bankers and financiers to sustain its economy
MODERATE
Maledictions.
- The investment you can generate in any industrial enterprise declines 50% in favour of more exciting and lucrative financial speculation
- An agent mocks your outdated, anti-enterprise ways in an important social context, costing you substantial goodwill or opportunity
- A rather slimy agent tries to lure you into a bad investment that will leave you completely mired in debt
- An uncanny event occurs around an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital - something that could just be bad luck/vibes, but feels off in a very unfriendly way and does you some mild harm.
Transformations.
- (Constant) People are looking for opportunities to convert wealth into soft power rather than more wealth. Characters working in the luxury crafts, arts, or scholarship, have a 5% additional chance of being approached by a wealthy patron each week, offering to commission a work
- (1/season) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 85% multiply the value of your investment by 2d3x over a year, 15% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends, or whatever
- (1/year) A great work of culture or art is commissioned in a Hegemonic or Core state as investors look to luxury rather than growth.
- (1/year) A non-Hegemonic Core or semi-Periphery state with lax restrictions on finance and a strong stock market suddenly receives an influx of investment departing other Core states and especially the Hegemon. 10% increase in the value of financial activities in that country; any business in a country being departed has a 20% chance of strong negative effects.
- (1/year) A formerly profitable industrial or mercantile Core venture folds or drastically downsizes after an attempt at expansion led to calamity
Breaking the Cycle.
- Destroy or cripple the capitalist class throughout the Core nations
- Persuade all Core nations to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
Intensification.
Maledictions.
- The investment you can generate in any industrial enterprise declines 50% in favour of more exciting and lucrative financial speculation
- An agent mocks your outdated, anti-enterprise ways in an important social context, costing you substantial goodwill or opportunity
- A rather slimy agent tries to lure you into a bad investment that will leave you completely mired in debt
- An uncanny event occurs around an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital - something that could just be bad luck/vibes, but feels off in a very unfriendly way and does you some mild harm.
Transformations.
- (Constant) People are looking for opportunities to convert wealth into soft power rather than more wealth. Characters working in the luxury crafts, arts, or scholarship, have a 5% additional chance of being approached by a wealthy patron each week, offering to commission a work
- (1/season) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 85% multiply the value of your investment by 2d3x over a year, 15% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends, or whatever
- (1/year) A great work of culture or art is commissioned in a Hegemonic or Core state as investors look to luxury rather than growth.
- (1/year) A non-Hegemonic Core or semi-Periphery state with lax restrictions on finance and a strong stock market suddenly receives an influx of investment departing other Core states and especially the Hegemon. 10% increase in the value of financial activities in that country; any business in a country being departed has a 20% chance of strong negative effects.
- (1/year) A formerly profitable industrial or mercantile Core venture folds or drastically downsizes after an attempt at expansion led to calamity
Breaking the Cycle.
- Destroy or cripple the capitalist class throughout the Core nations
- Persuade all Core nations to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- Overthrow capitalism or render its systems literally untenable
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:- 10 years pass;
- A formerly major industry within the Hegemon has entirely migrated overseas;
- A semi-peripheral power becomes Core
- A Core nation becomes substantially reliant on its bankers and financiers to sustain its economy
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:
- 10 years pass;
- A formerly major industry within the Hegemon has entirely migrated overseas;
- A semi-peripheral power becomes Core
- A Core nation becomes substantially reliant on its bankers and financiers to sustain its economy
STRONG
Maledictions.
- A business you own comes under pressure to become a joint-stock company. If you refuse, you can generate no further investment from anybody (except perhaps very close NPC allies, and they become enemies of the Telos in the process). If you accept, all shares you sell end up in the hands of Agents who attempt to stage a takeover and pack the board with their own.
- A shady businessperson threatens something you care deeply about to get you to sell them any shares you own at 60+1d4*10% of their current market value
- Nobody invites you to any of the best parties for at least a year
- Something you value deeply is bought up and enshittified; costs rise 25% and quality declines as far as the GM wants to push it
- An implausible, preternatural feat of manipulation or corruption is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, doing substantial harm to you. It's beyond normal human capacities, but not qualitatively so.
Transformations.
- (Instant) The Hegemonic state adopts (willingly or no) policies which dramatically advantage finance and speculation over hard trade. Any asset (property, stocks etc.) may now be purchased at 10% of its theoretical value if you're willing to take on a massive and unwieldy debt burden which will Surely Never Have Any Consequences.
- (Constant) People are looking for opportunities to convert wealth into soft power rather than more wealth. Characters working in the luxury crafts, arts, or scholarship, have a 10% additional chance of being approached by a wealthy patron each week, offering to commission a work at 5% above previous market values
- (1/month) A charming cultural event, party, salon etc. Highly witty conversation, extreme luxury, good fun to be had by all. It's the talk of the town it's held in for 1d6 days before and after.
- (1/month) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 75% multiply the value of your investment by 2d6x over a year, 25% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends, or whatever
- (1/season) A great work of culture or art is commissioned in a Hegemonic or Core state as investors look to luxury rather than growth.
- (1/year) Complete abandonment of a semi-peripheral or peripheral trading partner leads to the collapse of its economy
- (1/year) A formerly profitable industrial or mercantile Core venture folds or drastically downsizes after an attempt at expansion led to calamity
- (1/year) Prices in all Core nations rise an additional 1% to cater to the financial class at the cost of the middle and lower classes/
Transformations.
- (Instant) The Hegemonic state adopts (willingly or no) policies which dramatically advantage finance and speculation over hard trade. Any asset (property, stocks etc.) may now be purchased at 10% of its theoretical value if you're willing to take on a massive and unwieldy debt burden which will Surely Never Have Any Consequences.
- (Constant) People are looking for opportunities to convert wealth into soft power rather than more wealth. Characters working in the luxury crafts, arts, or scholarship, have a 10% additional chance of being approached by a wealthy patron each week, offering to commission a work at 5% above previous market values
- (1/month) A charming cultural event, party, salon etc. Highly witty conversation, extreme luxury, good fun to be had by all. It's the talk of the town it's held in for 1d6 days before and after.
- (1/month) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 75% multiply the value of your investment by 2d6x over a year, 25% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends, or whatever
- (1/season) A great work of culture or art is commissioned in a Hegemonic or Core state as investors look to luxury rather than growth.
- (1/year) Complete abandonment of a semi-peripheral or peripheral trading partner leads to the collapse of its economy
- (1/year) A formerly profitable industrial or mercantile Core venture folds or drastically downsizes after an attempt at expansion led to calamity
- (1/year) Prices in all Core nations rise an additional 1% to cater to the financial class at the cost of the middle and lower classes/
Breaking the Cycle.
- Destroy or cripple the capitalist class throughout the Core nations
- Overthrow capitalism (people are increasingly willing to consider this now) or render its systems literally untenable
- Persuade all Core nations to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- (Not its own heading but could help with either of the above) provoke deliberate financial collapse; even if this doesn't end the cycle, might shift you to Faint Winter
- Destroy or cripple the capitalist class throughout the Core nations
- Overthrow capitalism (people are increasingly willing to consider this now) or render its systems literally untenable
- Persuade all Core nations to legislate the capitalist class into strict compliance (Good Fucking Luck)
- (Not its own heading but could help with either of the above) provoke deliberate financial collapse; even if this doesn't end the cycle, might shift you to Faint Winter
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:- 10 years pass;
- A formerly major industry within the Hegemon has entirely migrated overseas;
- A semi-peripheral power becomes Core
- A Core nation becomes substantially reliant on its bankers and financiers to sustain its economy
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any two of:
- 10 years pass;
- A formerly major industry within the Hegemon has entirely migrated overseas;
- A semi-peripheral power becomes Core
- A Core nation becomes substantially reliant on its bankers and financiers to sustain its economy
OVERWHELMING
Maledictions.
- A business you own comes under pressure to become a joint-stock company. If you refuse, you can generate no further investment from anybody (except perhaps very close NPC allies, and they become enemies of the Telos in the process). If you accept, all shares you sell end up in the hands of Agents who attempt to stage a takeover and pack the board with their own.
- A shady businessperson threatens something you care deeply about to get you to sell them any shares you own at 60+1d4*10% of their current market value
- You're wholly excised from good society as deeply outmoded
- A place that matters to you is gentrified or wholly abandoned, transforming its character beyond recognition, by a particularly slimy group of Agents. Slowly. So you can watch.
- A decadent cult of idle-rich Agents attempt to sacrifice you to Mammon, or some equivalent gross simplification of the Cycle.
- A downright supernatural feat of manipulation or corruption is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, with pretty much any effect the Cycle desires.
Transformations.
- (Instant) Any asset (property, stocks etc.) may now be purchased at 5% of its theoretical value if you're willing to take on a massive and unwieldy debt burden which will Surely Never Have Any Consequences
- (Constant) People are looking for opportunities to convert wealth into soft power rather than more wealth. Characters working in the luxury crafts, arts, or scholarship, have a 20% additional chance of being approached by a wealthy patron each week, offering to commission a work at 10% above previous market values
- (1/week) A wild and completely debauched orgy OR a rivetign yet tense intellectual salon in which strange and frightening ideas are bandied about. It's the talk of the town it's held in for 1d3 days before and after.
- (1/week) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 55% multiply the value of your investment by 1d12+1x over a year, 45% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends, or whatever
- (1/month) A great work of culture or art is commissioned in a Hegemonic or Core state as investors look to luxury rather than growth.
- (1/season) Complete abandonment of a semi-peripheral or peripheral trading partner leads to the collapse of its economy OR a semi-peripheral region becomes a Core region through financial movement, establishing its own imperial relations
- (1/season) Prices in all Core nations rise an additional 1% to cater to the financial class at the cost of the middle and lower classes/
- (1/year) A revolutionary cultural, artistic or intellectual project prompts conservative horror and forward-looking joy in equal measure, permanently altering something about the culture of the Core or Hegemonic nation where it appeared
- (1/year) Fear spreads through the Hegemon of another Core or a semi-peripheral region rising to eclipse it. Chance of a hostile reaction to people from that region 10% higher for a year.
Breaking the Cycle.- Destroy or cripple the capitalist class throughout the Core nations
- Overthrow capitalism (people are increasingly willing to consider this now) or render its systems literally untenable
- (Not its own heading but could help with either of the above) provoke deliberate financial collapse; even if this doesn't end the cycle, might shift you to Faint Winter
Transformations.
- (Instant) Any asset (property, stocks etc.) may now be purchased at 5% of its theoretical value if you're willing to take on a massive and unwieldy debt burden which will Surely Never Have Any Consequences
- (Constant) People are looking for opportunities to convert wealth into soft power rather than more wealth. Characters working in the luxury crafts, arts, or scholarship, have a 20% additional chance of being approached by a wealthy patron each week, offering to commission a work at 10% above previous market values
- (1/week) A wild and completely debauched orgy OR a rivetign yet tense intellectual salon in which strange and frightening ideas are bandied about. It's the talk of the town it's held in for 1d3 days before and after.
- (1/week) A fantastic new investment opportunity built around a complex financial instrument; 55% multiply the value of your investment by 1d12+1x over a year, 45% lose it all. GM determines if the investment gives back a single payout, shares and dividends, or whatever
- (1/month) A great work of culture or art is commissioned in a Hegemonic or Core state as investors look to luxury rather than growth.
- (1/season) Complete abandonment of a semi-peripheral or peripheral trading partner leads to the collapse of its economy OR a semi-peripheral region becomes a Core region through financial movement, establishing its own imperial relations
- (1/season) Prices in all Core nations rise an additional 1% to cater to the financial class at the cost of the middle and lower classes/
- (1/year) A revolutionary cultural, artistic or intellectual project prompts conservative horror and forward-looking joy in equal measure, permanently altering something about the culture of the Core or Hegemonic nation where it appeared
- (1/year) Fear spreads through the Hegemon of another Core or a semi-peripheral region rising to eclipse it. Chance of a hostile reaction to people from that region 10% higher for a year.
- Destroy or cripple the capitalist class throughout the Core nations
- Overthrow capitalism (people are increasingly willing to consider this now) or render its systems literally untenable
- (Not its own heading but could help with either of the above) provoke deliberate financial collapse; even if this doesn't end the cycle, might shift you to Faint Winter
Contestation & the Terminal Crisis
The Sign of Winter; capital taking flight from its erstwhile protector; no certainty
 |
| Literally just a screenshot from today's Reuters 'Markets' page :) |
FAINT
Telos. - Collapse the markets of the Core state, re-creating a competitive field
- Determine which rival state-capital alliance is best placed to bring about a rebirth of the cycle through anti-market darwinism
Maledictions.
- Depending how aligned you are with the nation where you are, you're either publically insulted as an enemy alien or asked to take on some suicidally dangerous or ruinously costly task or mission to prepare for war. Either way, any response that isn't utterly polite and subservient leads to public shaming and at least one beating by an Agent
- The interest rate on one of your substantial debts is doubled
Transformations.
- (Constant) Everyone within the Core nations knows there's conflict coming, and knows it will determine the future of the world. The upper classes have just had a golden age, and their enthusiasm is infectious. Nobody can imagine how bad it will be yet
- (1/month) A patriotic celebration of the glory of whatever nation you're in/under the heel of
- (1/year) A diplomatic dispute, minor skirmish or trade war breaks out between the Hegemon and another Core nation
- (1/year) News of a dramatic, impressive and frightening innovation from a non-Hegemonic power - surely a sign of war coming?
Breaking the Cycle.
- Overthrow capitalism (honestly so hot this season) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system
- Destroy all rivals to the Hegemon, leading to a period of stabilization for it which might ultimately see it escape the wheel for good.
- Collapse the markets of the Core state, re-creating a competitive field
- Determine which rival state-capital alliance is best placed to bring about a rebirth of the cycle through anti-market darwinism
Maledictions.
- Depending how aligned you are with the nation where you are, you're either publically insulted as an enemy alien or asked to take on some suicidally dangerous or ruinously costly task or mission to prepare for war. Either way, any response that isn't utterly polite and subservient leads to public shaming and at least one beating by an Agent
- The interest rate on one of your substantial debts is doubled
Transformations.
- (Constant) Everyone within the Core nations knows there's conflict coming, and knows it will determine the future of the world. The upper classes have just had a golden age, and their enthusiasm is infectious. Nobody can imagine how bad it will be yet
- (1/month) A patriotic celebration of the glory of whatever nation you're in/under the heel of
- (1/year) A diplomatic dispute, minor skirmish or trade war breaks out between the Hegemon and another Core nation
- (1/year) News of a dramatic, impressive and frightening innovation from a non-Hegemonic power - surely a sign of war coming?
Breaking the Cycle.
- Overthrow capitalism (honestly so hot this season) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system
- Destroy all rivals to the Hegemon, leading to a period of stabilization for it which might ultimately see it escape the wheel for good.
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:- 10 years pass;
- A significant war between Core powers ends;
- The Hegemon loses or suffers a massive setback in a significant industry or chunk of territory;
- A revolution within the Hegemon itself is anything other than utterly crushed;
- The Hegemon's financial system is destabilized by literally any disruption to currency, assets, debts etc.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:
- 10 years pass;
- A significant war between Core powers ends;
- The Hegemon loses or suffers a massive setback in a significant industry or chunk of territory;
- A revolution within the Hegemon itself is anything other than utterly crushed;
- The Hegemon's financial system is destabilized by literally any disruption to currency, assets, debts etc.
MODERATE
Maledictions.
- Depending how aligned you are with the nation where you are, you're either publically insulted as an enemy alien or asked to take on some suicidally dangerous or ruinously costly task or mission to prepare for war. Either way, any response that isn't utterly polite and subservient leads to public shaming and at least one beating by an Agent
- Something you desperately need, right now, has just multiplied in price by 1d6+1x
- The market fluctuation (see below) automatically affects all your investments
- Disorder and war leaves a resource you need access to cut off or destroyed
- An uncanny event occurs around an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital - something that could just be bad luck/vibes, but feels off in a very unfriendly way and does you some mild harm.
Transformations.
- (Instant) A serious market fluctuation, a warning of things to come. 50% chance of any investment losing 2d50% of its value.
- (1/week) A patriotic celebration of the glory of whatever nation you're in/under the heel of OR a vicious attack on foreigners who are obviously enemy agents
- (1/season) 1% inflation
- (1/season) News of a dramatic, impressive and frightening innovation from a non-Hegemonic power - surely a sign of war coming?
- (1/year) A war breaks out between the Hegemon and another Core nation OR a popular uprising within the Hegemon is crushed
Breaking the Cycle.- Overthrow capitalism (honestly so hot this season) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system
- Destroy all rivals to the Hegemon, leading to a period of stabilization for it which might ultimately see it escape the wheel for good if it also undergoes a rapid economic miracle or might lead to a slow decay.
Transformations.
- (Instant) A serious market fluctuation, a warning of things to come. 50% chance of any investment losing 2d50% of its value.
- (1/week) A patriotic celebration of the glory of whatever nation you're in/under the heel of OR a vicious attack on foreigners who are obviously enemy agents
- (1/season) 1% inflation
- (1/season) News of a dramatic, impressive and frightening innovation from a non-Hegemonic power - surely a sign of war coming?
- (1/year) A war breaks out between the Hegemon and another Core nation OR a popular uprising within the Hegemon is crushed
- Overthrow capitalism (honestly so hot this season) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system
- Destroy all rivals to the Hegemon, leading to a period of stabilization for it which might ultimately see it escape the wheel for good if it also undergoes a rapid economic miracle or might lead to a slow decay.
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:- 10 years pass;
- A significant war between Core powers ends;
- The Hegemon loses or suffers a massive setback in a significant industry or chunk of territory;
- A revolution within the Hegemon itself is anything other than utterly crushed;
- The Hegemon's financial system is destabilized by literally any disruption to currency, assets, debts etc.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:
- 10 years pass;
- A significant war between Core powers ends;
- The Hegemon loses or suffers a massive setback in a significant industry or chunk of territory;
- A revolution within the Hegemon itself is anything other than utterly crushed;
- The Hegemon's financial system is destabilized by literally any disruption to currency, assets, debts etc.
STRONG
Maledictions.
- Depending how aligned you are with the nation where you are, you're either violently attacked and imprisoned as an enemy alien or drafted for war
- Something you desperately need, right now, has just multiplied in price by 1d10+1x
- The market crash (see below) automatically affects all your investments
- Disorder and war leaves a resource you need access to cut off or destroyed
- Radical economic measures by the state, legal harrassment by a piowerful landlord etc. lead to you being stripped of all your assets
- Agents of the enemy (a prospective future Hegemon, if that isn't your nation - see below) identify you as an ideal target for sabotage OR subversion. Very willing to kill and threaten to get their way.
- An implausible, preternatural feat of violence or subversion is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, doing substantial harm to you. It's beyond normal human capacities, but not qualitatively so.
Transformations.
- (Instant) A terrible market crash. 50% of any investment becoming worthless. Creditors call in all of their debts in cash. There is a run on the banks.
- (1/week) A riot against the rich, blamed for the economic disaster (or whatever representations of wealth are within range) OR a vicious attack on foreigners who are obviously enemy agents OR a big wild party at the end of the world, thrown in gated manses or looted shops
- (1/month) 1% inflation
- (1/season) A war breaks out between the Hegemon and another Core nation OR There is a devastating battle between the Hegemon and another Core nation OR a popular uprising within a the Hegemon is brutally and barely defeated OR a successful revolution in a non-Hegemonic Core or semi-peripheral nation
- (1/year) the crisis spirals out of the economic world and into the real. Concatenated infrastructural failure and distraction by conflict allows a famine, plague or other disaster in any one region to become a generation-defining horror.
Breaking the Cycle.- Overthrow capitalism (honestly so hot this season) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system
- Destroy all rivals to the Hegemon, returning the world to a state of interstate anarchy.
- Overthrow capitalism (honestly so hot this season) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system
- Destroy all rivals to the Hegemon, returning the world to a state of interstate anarchy.
Intensification.
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:- 10 years pass;
- A significant war between Core powers ends;
- The Hegemon loses or suffers a massive setback in a significant industry or chunk of territory;
- A revolution within the Hegemon itself is anything other than utterly crushed;
- The Hegemon's financial system is destabilized by literally any disruption to currency, assets, debts etc.
- A non-Hegemon Core state successfully intensifies a factor of production
After at least a year has passed, the cycle intensifies after any one of:
- 10 years pass;
- A significant war between Core powers ends;
- The Hegemon loses or suffers a massive setback in a significant industry or chunk of territory;
- A revolution within the Hegemon itself is anything other than utterly crushed;
- The Hegemon's financial system is destabilized by literally any disruption to currency, assets, debts etc.
- A non-Hegemon Core state successfully intensifies a factor of production
OVERWHELMING
Maledictions
- An agent, ideally one you've already got enmity with, tries to have you robbed or lynched
- Something you desperately need, right now, has just multiplied in price by 1d20+1x
- A resource you need is now under the firm control of the new Hegemon (see below) who imposes some cost to access it
- An Agent from the new Hegemon sets up a business that dangerously undercuts your own. Monthly turnover declines 10% in the first month, then 5% more each subsequent month to a minimum of 50% original
- Invading soldiers attack you or your assets, burning what they can't loot.
- A downright supernatural feat of violence or subversion is performed by an Agent, currency, an asset or another manifestation of Capital, with pretty much any effect the Cycle desires.
Transformations.
- (Instant) The nation with the strongest surviving economy that has managed to integrate a new factor of production becomes Hegemon, though it's still early days. In a tie, a war breaks out between remaining prospective Hegemons, in which the former Hegemon becomes a subordinate ally of the new through the fighting. Otherwise, the victor inflicts one final humiliating defeat on the former Hegemon. The new Hegemon has begun to turn things around for itself, and is immune to all other negative effects of this phase
- (1/week) a family from whatever area the campaign's happening in ups sticks and migrates to the new Hegemon OR if in the new Hegemon has their social standing radically transformed by the changes
- (1/month) 1% inflation for all except the new Hegemon
- (1/season) An attempted revolution in a non-Hegemonic Core or semi-peripheral nation - whether it's defeated or not depends on which side the Hegemon chooses to support
- (1/season) the crisis spirals out of the economic world and into the real. Concatenated infrastructural failure and distraction by conflict allows a famine, plague or other disaster in any one region to become a generation-defining horror.
- (1/year) an old trade route closes down entirely, replaced by one leading into the new Hegemon. Any nations crossed by the old one and not the new are downgraded one step, core>semi-periphery>periphery>degraded wasteland, if the Hegemon wishes them to be
Breaking the Cycle.- Overthrow capitalism within the new Hegemon (quite hard) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system - perhaps led by it?
- Destroy the new Hegemon, returning the world to a state of interstate anarchy.
- Overthrow capitalism within the new Hegemon (quite hard) or otherwise engineer a transition to a more just system - perhaps led by it?
- Destroy the new Hegemon, returning the world to a state of interstate anarchy.
The Stages in Order
If you feel particularly brave, you could run all of these back to back, though that's going to be a looong campaign. It'd give the opportunity to track the rise and fall of the different power-players, the cycle of their fortunes. It'd also mean there'd never be a settled stage that isn't in a cycle - rather than starting in your favoured setting themn going to Faint and up from there, you'd start in Faint Spring and move on from there. Generational play, presumably. It might feel like going from the Overwhelming stage of one cycle to the Faint of the next is a bit of a dramatic downshift, creating a false sense of lulls immediately after each crisis. You could either A) accept this as a time for PCs to adapt to the new status quo, B) emphasize the ongoing consequences and fallout of the Overwhelming stage, or C) run the Overwhelming and Faint stages at the same time or partially overlapping.
Seems Like An Odd Way of Running This
Yeah. Or at least, it wouldn't be my usual way. As I've said in the past, I tend to want to think about: 'How do your NPCs enforce their power? What are the specific sinews of their power? An NPC with a generic 'underworld' at their command is a sort of god of crime, and like a god defeating them feels either impossible or arbitrary. An NPC with a specific criminal hierarchy operating in specific places at specific times feels like something graspable, breakable.'
I'd still advocate for this 'materialist' perspective, 99% of the time. But I don't think that the Cycle of Capital As Eldritch God is immaterial or ideal, per se - it's intended to indicate a hyper-object, after all, an emergent property of networked people and objects.[3] Rather, by behaving in a way that seems to non-naturalistically impose itself on a world that should by and large still function with verisimilitudinous causation, it is marked as existing on a scale where some of its causes and contexts are invisible to the PCs. Its weird intrusion also becomes something the PCs can detect and identify as a threat. Or in other words, this is a dramatic exaggeration of the Capital-entity concept for TTRPG purposes, because the people playing with that concept in real life are referring to the same capitalism that most people (including presumably your players) will identify as either an economic-political order or 'the way of the world'. It's first and foremost an antagonist sitting in the boundaries between systemic and cosmic horror, not a wholesale simulation engine. You could run it 'quietly' as a process of dumb events, but if you do you'll probably need to hone your invisible rulebooks to weave it in a bit more naturalistically.
Anyway, that's the post. Took long enough. Inevitably I'm dissatisfied with it, and I encourage anybody who wants to to hack, adapt or critique it to do so to their their heart's content.
- Jago
Also reading for pleasure this month: Carl Phillips, Then The War & Selected Poems 2007-2020; Robert Chernomas and Ian Hudson, The Profit Doctrine: Economists of the Neoliberal Era; Mark Lilla, The Shipwrecked Mind: On Political Reaction; Kate Khatib, Margaret Killjoy & Mike McGuire (eds.), We Are Many: Reflections on Movement Strategy from Occupation to Liberation
Next Month's Book Blog: Either Richard English's Does Terrorism Work? A History or Natalia Tamruchi's An Experience of Madness: Alternative Russian Art in the 1960s-1990s
Next Month's Book Blog: Either Richard English's Does Terrorism Work? A History or Natalia Tamruchi's An Experience of Madness: Alternative Russian Art in the 1960s-1990s
[1] Interestingly, Elder Evils is the earliest description of a 'staged' boss I can find, and the idea of the stages being partially environmental doesn't seem to resurface until it's fellow eldritch D&D supplement Sandy Peterson's Cthulhu. It's a slightly different lineage to the video game inspired stadial boss (which escalates in response to damage/threat) as normally discussed, but still. Timeline goes: Elder Evils 2007, c.2011 first discussions of phased bosses on TTRPG forums I can dig up in a half-hour or so, this r/rpg post c.2013, Angry GM discusses the topic a bit 2015, Sandy Peterson's Cthulhu Mythos 2018, Mythic Odysseys of Theros brings it to core 5e 2020. I don't have a conclusion to draw except that expressed above: something (good foreshadowing tool?) makes stages a good vibe for eldritch immensity.
[2] Many thanks to the TASKERLAND blog for introducing me to that gem of a clip... Network is now firmly on the TBW list
[2] Many thanks to the TASKERLAND blog for introducing me to that gem of a clip... Network is now firmly on the TBW list
[3] I suppose I find the notion of a material-ideal distinction somewhat confusing, though I freely admit that's because of a lack of study into the topics. My actual methodology seems to align more with materialists of whom I'm aware. But - surely a thing either participates in a causal chain (in which case it might as well be called material) or doesn't (in which case it can't be meaningfully said to exist, and if it does we'll never know it); a concept might well be causal insofar as it's a transfer of information that changes actions elsewhere, but if it is, does that not mean it's also material? Leave a comment if I'm being really stupid here.
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